Apple’s iPhone dominance is going to be hard to topple
Interesting article today on Flurry (and also summarized on MacRumors.com)
We’ve been internally debating about Apple’s continued dominance in the smart-phone market. I’ve taken the position that Apple will be the leader for at least 4 years, it appears I may have been understating it bit.
Looking at the chart above, it becomes clear that Apple is leading the iPhone/Android usage metrics by 3 fold. But what what the report also goes on to suppose is that iPod touch users (assumed to be mostly kids that do not have a cell phone yet) will eventually migrate to iPhone users. To me this seems like pretty sound logic.
The article also goes on to theorize that since most iPod touch users are also very heavy social networkers, they will help influence the entire market…
I’d love to hear your thoughts on where you think the mobile market is going… who do you think is going to be the dominant force in 2015 ?
I think that as smartphones become more common in all segments of the mobile market android will be leading by 2015. I think this because android has only just started, and a with 2.0 it is matured enough for more brands to consider it. Also android is much more affordable compared to iphone. By 2015 Iphone will have lost a large market share to android and will be a niche product again, like most of apple’s products.
i agree with jim. android is a formidable competitor and may have a larger marketshare by 2015. it’s funny how history repeats itself. remember the early 80’s when there were two platforms. one offered a better experience the other offered tons of software? i’m speaking of microsoft and apple. apple chose to control the platform while microsoft decided to open its source code with everyone. as a result the apple experience remained excellent but did not reach mass appeal for years because of all of the options and distribution that microsoft had. (of course some of this is debatable.)
the choice that android made to be open source combined with the fact that a cashcow like google is backing it makes for a recipe similar to the early age of personal computing. apple will remain dominant with those who are not ubertechy. it will probably take over the marketplace of 35y/o+. why? because it is a controlled environment that gives the customer little choice and guarantees a solid performance everytime because it has approved every app and structure.
android, on the other hand is the opposite. it will appeal to techy peeps which in 5 years will be anybody under 35. also, the android app store is going to explode because developers are going to realize that it doesnt make sense to make apps that they are not 100% certain they will be able to sell due to a restrictive app approval process such as apple. why not develop for a distribution that allows them the guarantee that it will get distributed without a mega-company determining whether or not it is acceptable.
it is all fascinating though as computers become more and more a part of every day life and most of those computers in the future will look nothing like the clunky keyboarded things we’re using now. :)